With a hat-trick from Victor Osimhen and a late goal from Frank Onyeka to secure a play-off position, Nigeria defeated Benin 4-0 in Uyo, preserving their hopes of qualifying for the 2026 World Cup. OLAMIDE ABE examines how the Super Eagles can secure their spot at the North American global showcase in this explainer.
Nigeria’s path to the playoff
Nigeria’s hopes of automatic qualification also hinged on the result of the match between South Africa and Rwanda in Mbombela. The Super Eagles needed Bafana Bafana to drop points, but Hugo Broos’ team won 3-0 to secure first place and a direct ticket to the World Cup. Benin started the final round of Group C matches at the top of the table, needing only a draw to secure their passage. However, they were completely outplayed in Uyo as Nigeria dominated from beginning to end.
Although it was not enough to guarantee automatic qualification, the Super Eagles’ 4-0 victory put them ahead of the Cheetahs to finish second in the group, placing Nigeria among the top four runners-up on the continent and providing them with another chance to advance to the finals via the play-off route.
Only the nine group winners in the current CAF qualifying process are guaranteed spots in the United States, Mexico, and Canada for the World Cup the following year. To choose Africa’s representative in the inter-confederation play-offs, the top four finishers move on to a different round of play-offs.
How Nigeria made it to the playoffs thanks to the Eritrea verdict
A little-known rule changed how the African qualifiers turned out: CAF took away all of the points won by the worst club in each group when comparing the second-place teams. After Eritrea’s withdrawal reduced Group E to five teams, the rule was implemented to maintain fairness.
The final standings were significantly changed by the change. Following the elimination of victories over Djibouti, Burkina Faso’s 21 points in Group A fell to 15. After subtracting points from games against South Sudan, DR Congo’s 22 points down to 16 in Group B.
Nigeria finished with 15 points, which was sufficient to place among the top four runners-up due to superior goal differential. Nigeria, who are second in Group C with 17 points, drew twice with Zimbabwe, meaning they lost only two points under the regulation.
After eliminating the results against Eswatini, Cameroon’s 19 points in Group D dropped to 15, whereas Niger in Group E retained all 15 points because neither team was eliminated from their five-nation group.
After eliminating victories over Seychelles, Gabon, who dominated Group F, saw their 25 points reduced to 19, although they still topped the runners-up standings. After deductions involving Somalia, Uganda’s Group G score decreased from 18 to 12 points; Namibia’s Group H score dropped from 15 to 9 points because of São Tomé and Príncipe; and Madagascar’s Group I score dropped from 19 to 13 points after eliminating wins over Chad.
Nigeria, Gabon, DR Congo, and Cameroon were the four countries that advanced to the CAF play-offs in November as a result of the recalculations, which eventually benefitted them.
An explanation of the CAF play-off format
Four teams, each selected from the top-performing runners-up in the group phase, will compete in the CAF play-offs in Morocco. From November 13 to 16, the games will be played in Morocco on neutral territory.
Teams will be seeded in accordance with CAF criteria using the FIFA men’s world rankings as on October 23. The top-ranked team will play the bottom-ranked team, and the other semi-final will pit the second and third teams against each other. The format of each match will be single-leg knockout.
Teams will be permitted to make a sixth substitute during 30 minutes of extra time if the score is still tied after 90 minutes. A penalty shootout will determine the winner if the draw continues.
According to current standings, Cameroon will play DR Congo in the second semi-final, while Nigeria will play Gabon in the first. On November 13, both games will take place, and the winners will advance to the final on November 16. Africa’s only berth in the inter-confederation playoffs will go to the winner of the final.
What takes place following the CAF playoffs?
Nigeria will go to the inter-confederation play-offs in March 2026 if they win the African play-off game. This stage, which includes six teams from five different confederations, is the last qualifying route for the World Cup.
In addition to two teams from CONCACAF (North and Central America and the Caribbean), the participating nations will have one squad each from CAF (Africa), AFC (Asia), CONMEBOL (South America), and OFC (Oceania).
South America will be represented by Bolivia, Oceania by New Caledonia, and Asia by either Iraq or the United Arab Emirates. The two CONCACAF representatives will be confirmed in November.
The structure of the inter-confederation playoffs
The current play-off format was accepted by the FIFA Council in 2017. With the exception of UEFA, each confederation is given one play-off slot, and the host confederation—in this case, CONCACAF—gets an extra one because the United States, Mexico, and Canada will host the tournament in 2026.
They will be a World Cup prelude, with the playoffs being held in Mexico. Between March 23 and March 31, 2026, the games will take place at Estadio BBVA in Monterrey and Estadio Akron in Guadalajara.
The FIFA men’s global rankings will be used to determine the seeding of the six teams. While the remaining four teams will compete in two semi-final matches, the top two teams will automatically advance to the final round.
Like the CAF play-offs, matches in this phase will be decided over a single leg, with extra time and penalties used if necessary. If Nigeria advances to this stage, they are likely to be seeded, meaning they would bypass the semi-final and play only one decisive final match to secure their place at the World Cup. The winners of those semi-finals will then face the two seeded teams in separate finals, and the winners of those two finals will claim the last two tickets to the 2026 World Cup.
Nigeria’s future path
Although the Super Eagles’ path to the World Cup has grown significantly, their decisive victory over Benin demonstrated a fresh sense of urgency and faith. The tactical decisions made by head coach Eric Chelle, who made four changes to the team that had played Lesotho four days prior, paid off handsomely.
The NFF had already planned two friendlies in the United States as part of their preparations for the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations, against Venezuela in Houston on November 14 and Colombia in New York four days later, with the hope of either earning an automatic ticket or missing out like they did for Qatar 2022. To make room for the World Cup play-offs, both games must now be scrapped.
Nigeria will have to keep up that pace and poise in the playoffs since Gabon will be their next opponent. A victory in Morocco would put them one step closer to making amends and making their seventh appearance on the grandest stage in sport.
Even though the path may be convoluted, the Super Eagles’ goal is still to make it through the playoffs, fly over the inter-confederation barrier, and secure a spot in North America 2026.
