In private discussions, the path to Nigeria’s upcoming presidential election is already being charted, and one name—Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde—continues to be mentioned with curiosity and skepticism.
At the state level, he is regarded as a good leader, but it is yet unclear if his influence will be felt nationally.
Can the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which is still attempting to mend the divides that followed its 2023 performance and is still reeling from three consecutive losses at the presidential polls, truly put its hopes in him?
The focus now is on Southern governors who survived the 2023 storm, as the PDP has shifted its presidential ticket to the South.
In addition to maintaining a PDP stronghold, Seyi Makinde stands out among them for being faithful when others joined other parties.
His persistence and technocratic attitude are praised by supporters. However, detractors contend that his ascent may be a premeditated attempt to maintain the PDP’s weakness.
Makinde’s story would be incomplete without mentioning his involvement with the G5 alliance, a group of governors who rebelled against the PDP leadership in 2022. He gained national recognition through his partnership with Nyesom Wike, but the two men’s paths diverged;
Wike, despite being officially a PDP member, has since defected to the APC, while Makinde has stayed loyal to the PDP. According to media reports, the APC has benefited greatly from their feud, which has widened the PDP’s internal divisions.
The main query for many is straightforward: would Makinde be able to defeat President Bola Tinubu in 2027? His supporters think he can.
“What Nigerians need in 2027 is capacity and pedigree, which Seyi Makinde and I have demonstrated at the sub-national level,” stated Bala Mohammed, the governor of Bauchi State, in a public statement.
Critics, however, are not as persuaded. They draw attention to the fact that Makinde’s national visibility is still low, his popularity outside of the South-West is unclear, and his relationships in the North have not yet been put to the test.
They believe that by putting up a candidate who doesn’t have the required weight, the PDP runs the risk of losing to the APC again, as it did in 2023.
Imagine for a moment what the contest might look like: a relatively young governor running against a well-established national personality. PDP supporters may interpret it as a sign of rebirth. The APC may view it as a blessing, a foe that is too simple to defeat.
Makinde hasn’t publicly stated any aspirations. Rather, he keeps a low profile and frequently prioritizes party unity over individual interests.
The Oyo Governor was questioned about demands put on the party by Wike, who has publicly stated his support for Tinubu’s 2027 reelection campaign, during the PDP zoning committee’s southern consultative meeting in Lagos two weeks ago.
Makinde retorted, “I personally don’t go with them when they go low or into the gutters.” The conjecture was only heightened by his reserved remarks.
Putting his name out there as a potential presidential candidate, according to some insiders, is more about testing the waters or upsetting opponents than it is about his personal goals. Appearances can be just as important in Nigerian politics as intentions.
Makinde’s alleged advantages—youth, commitment, and his track record in governance—come with some significant disadvantages.
Any route to Aso Rock is complicated by a divided but rebuilding PDP and questions about his national reach.
Nonetheless, there are some confident voices in the party. Adetokunbo Pearse of the Lagos PDP has maintained that Makinde has a good chance of unseating President Tinubu in 2027.
“I have stated my support for him because I think he would be an excellent candidate and has a decent chance of defeating Tinubu in 2027 based on his record and character. That’s where I stand. Pearse stated, “I genuinely believe Makinde can take on Tinubu, but he won’t be the only one running unless others decide to step aside.”
Femi Babalola, the leader of the Oyo PDP, went even farther, calling Makinde the perfect candidate for president who possesses the skills necessary to govern Nigeria.
He said that Makinde would have been governor for eight years by 2027, which would give him invaluable experience in a race against other formidable opponents.
“Governor Makinde has done a commendable job. Although there can be some issues, no one in the world can have perfect government, he remarked.
However, reality tempers optimism. For every supporter, there are doubters who caution that Makinde may be too easily dismissed on election day in 2027 because to the APC’s incumbency power and his low national profile.
Imagine the ballot for 2027: Tinubu, the seasoned political behemoth, is up against Makinde, a comparatively youthful Southern governor.
It can feel like a welcome change to many Nigerians who are sick of seeing the same people. However, it may appear to APC strategists that this is just another splintered opposition that doesn’t really pose a threat.
Just that situation demonstrates why Makinde’s name evokes both excitement and anxiety.
The PDP is still too disjointed, despite its gradual recovery, to offer a cohesive strategy at this time.
Should Makinde run in 2027, Bala Mohammed has cautioned that the party must not make the same “mistake” as the APC by running a Muslim-Muslim ticket. This is a subliminal plea for balance.
Makinde’s silence just heightens the excitement. Is he simply biding his time? A stand-in for a more comprehensive plan? Or in a longer game, maybe a well-chosen decoy?
One thing is certain as the 2027 presidential election draws near: Makinde’s shadow is bigger than his quiet.
Some see his name as a sign of hope, while others see it as a sign of weakness or even merely a tactic. Whatever that means, though, it has already changed the way the PDP talks.
Decisions that are yet to be made will determine whether he becomes the party’s standard-bearer, its decoy, or just a passing whisper. For the time being, Makinde’s story is also about a group of people fighting for their lives and a country looking on while the scene is subtly prepared.
