The Federal Government’s goal of short-term, single-digit inflation is unrealistic, according to the World Bank, which also cautions that Nigeria is still one of the few African nations experiencing high consumer price inflation.
Nigeria, along with Angola, Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Sudan, Zambia, São Tomé and Príncipe, and Zimbabwe, is expected to maintain double-digit inflation rates through 2025, according to the Bank’s most recent Africa’s Pulse report, which was made public on Tuesday.
According to the report, Nigeria is still an anomaly because of enduring structural issues like currency depreciation, high food and energy prices, and supply constraints that keep prices unstable, even though 37 of Africa’s 47 economies are expected to maintain single-digit inflation by 2026.
The Federal Government’s confidence that its recent fiscal and monetary reforms, such as the removal of fuel subsidies, the unification of the FX, and the tightening measures taken by the Central Bank, would swiftly reduce inflation to single digits is undermined by the development, which runs counter to the projection.
Key government figures in the current administration, such as Olayemi Cardoso, the governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, and Wale Edun, the minister of finance and coordination minister for the economy, have repeatedly reassured Nigerians that continued monetary and fiscal reforms will contribute to bringing inflation down to single digits in the near future.
Cardoso stated that a single-digit inflation rate is still the CBN’s medium-term goal during the CBN Governor’s Annual Lecture Series, which was held last week in Lagos at the Lagos Business School.
Some research organisations argue that the National Bureau of Statistics’ statistics, which places the nation’s headline inflation rate at 20.12%, overestimates the overall level of prices. This is the basis for the insistence.
He stated at the event, “The goal is to make sure that we achieve single-digit inflation in the medium term.”
However, while price rise in the area drops to historic lows, Nigeria is one of the few nations still experiencing double-digit inflation, according to the World Bank’s assessment, despite a general wave of disinflation sweeping across Sub-Saharan Africa.
“Pathways to Job Creation in Africa” is the title of the biannual report.
It stated, “In most Sub-Saharan Africa, consumer price inflation has continued to decline.”
nations, yet at different rates. Following a high of 9.3% in 2022, the area’s
In 2024, the median inflation rate fell to 4.5% and is anticipated to level off between
3.9 and 4.0 percent per year from 2025 to 2026. In 2025–2026, there were 37 nations in the region with single-digit inflation rates, up from 27 in 2022.
In 2025, consumer price inflation has slowed in about 60% of Sub-Saharan African nations compared to the previous year. Angola, Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria, São Tomé and Príncipe, Sudan, Zambia, and Zimbabwe are the nine nations in this category that are still anticipated to have double-digit inflation rates.
Despite global economic challenges, the World Bank said Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy is still strong, predicting regional growth to pick up speed from 3.5% in 2024 to 3.8% in 2025 and an average of 4.4% in 2026–2027.
Driven by a recovery in oil output and modest investment flows, Nigeria’s growth projection was boosted by 0.6 percentage points, one of the largest revisions among major economies. However, the bank cautioned that household welfare and corporate confidence are still significantly impacted by inflation.
The research stated, “Nigeria’s inflation trajectory continues to undermine consumer demand and macroeconomic stability, while countries like Ivory Coast and Kenya are benefiting from price stability and easing monetary conditions.”
Nigeria’s depreciating currency, high energy prices, and disruptions in the food supply made worse by insecurity and inadequate logistics have all been blamed by economists for the country’s price pressures.
Nigeria’s double-digit inflation rate is an outlier on the continent, since over half of Sub-Saharan African countries are predicted to keep their rates below 5% in the coming year.
With the help of effective foreign exchange management and strict fiscal policies, South Africa, Senegal, and Tanzania have all been able to keep inflation in the single digits.
The region’s median rate of inflation is less than 4%. Additionally, the majority of currencies that were in decline in relation to the US dollar have now stabilised and recovered, according to Andrew Dabalen, Chief Economist for Africa at the World Bank. “Structural supply bottlenecks and exchange rate pass-through make Nigeria’s situation difficult.”
The Bretton Wood Institution also issued a warning: even though the region’s economy is resilient, growth is still not enough to generate enough good jobs for its growing labour force.
According to the report, “over the last ten years, external debt service has more than doubled, reaching 2% of GDP in 2024.” “Since 2014, the number of Sub-Saharan African nations at high risk of debt distress has almost tripled.”
The spike in inflation has lowered living standards and slowed the increase of real income in Nigeria, where unemployment and underemployment are still prevalent.
In order to draw in private investment, the report advised African governments to give top priority to policies that lower transaction costs, develop human capital, and fortify institutions.
Additionally, it noted that every job generated in tourism generates 1.5 more jobs in allied sectors, making agribusiness, healthcare, housing, tourist, and mining the industries with the most potential for job development.
Dabalen predicted that the number of people in Sub-Saharan Africa who are of working age would increase by over 600 million during the next 25 years. “Assuring that these individuals obtain better employment in a setting of stability and opportunity is the challenge.”
